Do you trust a True/False questionnaire to predict the presidential election?

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Do you trust a True/False questionnaire to predict the presidential election? What of it's been correct 100% of the time for the past 12 elections? Does that change things?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/professor-whos-correctly-called-every-presidential-election-since-1984-predicts-trump-will-win-202136418.html

Comments

MTD said…
Same one that predicted a Bernie win?
October 30, 2016 at 9:14 AM
James Hollenbeck said…
That's a pretty small sample size.
October 30, 2016 at 9:23 AM
Brian Sullivan said…
I would stick with Nate Silver.
October 30, 2016 at 9:28 AM
Bodhipaksa said…
His key third-party question is flawed, because it doesn't matter if Johnson gets 5% of the vote, but where he gets it, and whether those people were more likely to be Hillary or Trump voters. 538's projections assume Johnson will get 5% (near enough) but still have Hillary winning decisively: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
projects.fivethirtyeight.com - 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
October 30, 2016 at 9:46 AM
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